What is happening? (In simple words)
A U.S. storm increased electricity costs, so:
Bitcoin miners’ profits dropped
Many miners turned off machines
Network hashrate fell ~20%
This situation is called miner capitulation.
🧠What is “Miner Capitulation”? (Example)
Think of miners like factories:
When costs are low → factories run full speed
When costs spike → weak factories shut down
👉 When many miners shut down at once, it often means:
The weakest players are gone
Selling pressure reduces
The market is near a price bottom
Historically, this has been bullish for Bitcoin after stabilization.
📊 What is the Hash Ribbon Indicator?
The Hash Ribbon compares:
30-day average hashrate (short term)
60-day average hashrate (long term)
How it works:
Signal Meaning
30-day drops below 60-day 🔴 Miner capitulation
30-day crosses back above 60-day 🟢 Capitulation ending
Price momentum turns positive ⭐ Long-term buy zone
🧪 Example Using History
🟠Example 1: November (Recent)
Hash Ribbon showed capitulation
Bitcoin price ≈ $80,000
Now price ≈ $88,000
BTC Short-Term Technical Analysis
Date: 28 January 2026
Time Window: 10:25 AM → 12:25 PM (2 hours)
Expected Range: $80,000 – $87,300
📌 Meaning: Market likely already saw the bottom.
🟠Example 2: Mid-2024
Hash Ribbon + macro stress (yen carry trade unwind)
Bitcoin bottomed near $49,000
Rallied to $100,000 within months
📌 Hash Ribbon correctly signaled long-term accumulation.
🟠Example 3: FTX Collapse (2022)
Massive miner capitulation
Bitcoin bottom ≈ $15,000
After normalization → rebound to $22,000
📌 Capitulation = pain first, strength later.
⚙️ Hashrate & Difficulty (Why it matters)
Hashrate fell from 1.2 ZH/s → 950 EH/s
Next difficulty adjustment expected: −17%
Largest drop since China mining ban (2021)
👉 Lower difficulty =
✔ Easier mining
✔ Higher miner profitability
✔ Network stabilizes
✔ Bullish setup historically
🧠Big Picture Takeaway
This pattern says:
When miners suffer the most, long-term investors often get the best opportunities.
Not a guarantee — but historically one of Bitcoin’s most reliable bottom signals.
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