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USD/JPY Analysis – Practical Example

USD/JPY Analysis – 26/01/2026, 11:52 AM

Aaj ke analysis ke mutabiq, USD/JPY ka price 26 January 2026 ko 11:52 AM ke waqt 155.20 par trade kar raha tha. Mera scenario suggest karta hai ke price 153.66 se 156.70 ke range me fluctuate kar sakta hai, lekin agar 153.40 ka support level breach hota hai, to aur neeche gir kar 152.70 tak ja sakta hai. Ye analysis short-term traders ke liye specially useful hai jo pivot points aur technical levels ko follow karte hain.

🔹 Key Levels

  • Pivot Point: 155.55

  • Immediate Target: 152.50

  • Expected Move: 110–160 pips

Pivot point ka significance ye hai ke ye price ke trend direction ka central reference provide karta hai. Agar price pivot ke neeche ho, to market me bearish momentum zyada hota hai. Agar pivot ke upar ho, to bullish trend stronger hota hai.

🧩 Practical Example – SELL Trade (Ideal Scenario)

Current Price: 155.20

  1. Price Pivot ke neeche hai – 155.20 < 155.55 ✅

  2. Market Weakness: Momentum indicators (jaise moving averages aur RSI) suggest kar rahe hain ke short-term bearish trend dominate kar raha hai.

Action Plan:

  • SELL entry near 155.20

  • Target 1: 153.66 (support zone)

  • Target 2: 152.70 (strong support / final target in current wave)

  • Stop-loss: 155.80 (slightly above pivot to avoid false breakout)

Is trade ka logic ye hai ke price pivot ke neeche weak hai, aur technical indicators short-term downward pressure show kar rahe hain. Traders ko chahiye ke risk-reward ratio 1:2 ya 1:3 set karein, taake trade efficient aur manageable ho.

📈 Trend Analysis

  • Short-term Trend: Bearish

  • Medium-term Trend: Neutral / Slightly Bearish

  • Resistance Levels: 155.55 (pivot), 156.70 (recent highs)

  • Support Levels: 153.66, 153.40, 152.70

Trend ki clarity ke liye moving averages aur RSI ka analysis zaroori hai:

  • Agar MA 20 < MA 50, short-term bearish trend strong hai

  • RSI near 40–45 indicate kar raha hai ke market abhi fully oversold nahi hai, aur aur downside potential hai

🔹 Risk Management & Strategy

  1. Position Size: Market volatility 110–160 pips expected hai, is liye position size ko manage karna essential hai.

  2. Stop-loss: Pivot ke upar rakhen – 155.80 se zyada touch hone par trade close.

  3. Profit Booking:

    • Half position 153.66 par exit

    • Remaining 152.70 par close

Trading ke doran news events, FOMC statements ya major economic announcements ka effect bhi dhyan me rakhein. High volatility ke waqt sudden spikes ya fake breakout ho sakte hain.

🔹 Possible Price Movement

  • Immediate Scenario: Price 155.20 se neeche move kar sakta hai 153.66 tak

  • Extended Scenario: Agar 153.40 ka support break hota hai, price aur neeche 152.70 tak ja sakta hai

  • Upside Reversal: Agar price 155.55 pivot cross kar leta hai, bearish scenario invalidate ho jata hai aur short-term bullish reversal ho sakta hai

✅ Summary

  • Current Price: 155.20

  • Trend: Short-term Bearish

  • Sell Entry: 155.20

  • Targets: 153.66, 152.70

  • Stop-loss: 155.80

  • Expected Move: 110–160 pips

Ye strategy technical analysis aur pivot points ke basis par banai gayi hai, aur risk management principles follow karti hai. Traders ko chahiye ke market ke real-time movements aur volatility ko monitor karte rahein aur stop-loss ka strictly implementation karein.

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